Scientists Warn 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold Could Be Breached Within Three Years
Global Climate on Brink of Dangerous Tipping Points, Researchers Say.
A new scientific report has issued a stark warning: the planet could cross the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold in just over three years if current levels of greenhouse gas emissions persist.
Published this week by the Indicators of Global Climate Change initiative, the study underscores the urgent need for intensified global climate action.
According to the report, Earth’s average temperature has already risen by 1.36°C above pre-industrial levels and is currently warming at a rate of 0.27°C per decade.
If these trends continue, the likelihood of temporarily or permanently exceeding the 1.5°C limit — the key target under the Paris Agreement — could reach 50% by 2028.
While the difference between 1.49°C and 1.51°C might appear small, scientists caution that even a marginal overshoot could trigger irreversible climate tipping points — such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet or the disruption of oceanic current systems — with devastating global consequences.
“This is a wake-up call for policymakers and the public,” said one of the lead authors.
“We are closer than ever to crossing a line that cannot easily be reversed.”
The 1.5°C threshold has long served as a global climate guardrail, with scientists and leaders agreeing it represents the best chance to avoid the most catastrophic outcomes of climate change, including extreme weather, sea-level rise, and food insecurity.
The study also highlights the variability in how warming is experienced around the world.
Though the 1.5°C figure represents a global average, regional and local temperatures may rise much higher, intensifying climate impacts in already vulnerable regions.
This independent update helps bridge the gap between formal reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), offering more frequent and accessible assessments of global climate indicators.
Key Takeaways:
The planet is currently 1.36°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
If emissions persist, there is a 50% chance of breaching 1.5°C in just over three years.
Irreversible climate tipping points may be triggered even by slight overshoots.
Urgent global action is needed to cut emissions and avoid catastrophic climate impacts.
The report’s release adds pressure ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where global leaders are expected to revisit climate pledges and ramp up financial and policy commitments.
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