…But faces continuing headwinds – even as 5G subscriptions are projected to quadruple by 2028 – PwC Global Telecoms Outlook
Global telecoms revenue is projected to rise at a CAGR of 2.9% through to 2028, below inflation, even as the sectors total revenue across fixed and mobile verticals rose 4.3% in 2023 to hit US$1.1 trillion, according to PwC’s Global Telecoms Outlook.
The Outlook finds that the telecoms industry faces a sluggish outlook amid rising costs and competition, muted subscriber growth, and lingering macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
Despite there being volume growth in the sector, average revenue per unit (ARPU) is expected to decline on average 2% annually until 2028, across mobile, fixed broadband, and voice services.
But while the Outlook points to a challenging environment in need of re-invention, wide variation exists in the growth outlook between services and markets.
For instance, fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions are projected to grow annually by 3.8% and 4.3% until 2028, respectively, while fixed voice subscriptions are expected to decline by 1.8%
Across geographies, fixed subscriptions are projected to grow between 0-6% — with higher growth markets including India (17.2%), Nigeria (9.2%) and Malaysia (9%).
Dr. Florian Gröne, Global Telecoms Leader, PwC US, said:
“The telecoms industry must re-imagine how it creates, delivers and captures value in the face of rising costs and competition.
“The industry faces enormous potential, particularly as consumers and societal actors increasingly operate across digital platforms and AI drives significant investments in digital connectivity infrastructure, but the industry remains sensitive to macroeconomic forces and is highly cost-intensive, with almost all the cash it generates absorbed by CapEx, dividends and servicing debt.
“As new and emerging technologies transform sectors, the telecoms industry must harness the power of AI, while working with investors and regulators to optimise market structure and deploy deals to build scale.”
5G subscriptions projected to quadruple as capital shifts to fixed connectivity
Despite sluggish uptake in 5G services to-date, subscriptions for the service are expected to more than quadruple, from 1.79 billion in 2023 to 7.51 billion in 2028, with its share of total mobile subscriptions more than tripling, from 18.8% in 2023 to 64.1% in 2028.
At this rate, 5G is expected to become the dominant mobile standard from 2026. One particular application is Fixed-Wireless Access (FWA) – which is projected to be the fastest growing broadband technology to 2028, rising at a CAGR of 18.3%.
Against this backdrop, momentum of capital is shifting decisively towards fixed connectivity – or fibre.
In 2023, total telecom capex fell 2.3%, driven by a 5.7% decline in mobile.
However, industry capex is projected to grow at a 2.4% CAGR from 2024, fuelled initially by fixed broadband investments for fibre roll-out, and later in the period by a revival in mobile CapEx as operators prepare for 6G.
Automotive and mobility sector to power cellular internet-of-things (IoT) services
Driven in large part by increased adoption of smart automobiles and the mobility sector, cellular internet-of-things (IoT) services has emerged as an industry bright spot across all regions.
Overall, IoT revenue in the automotive sector is projected to more than double between 2023 and 2028 to reach US$34.1 billion, rising at a CAGR of 15.8%.
The AI imperative
As new and emerging technologies transform industry, fuel demand for connectivity services and digital infrastructure and investment, AI presents a significant opportunity for the telecoms industry, but one that still remains under-utilised.
At the consumer level, AI tools and capabilities can also help telcos deliver personalised customer experiences, boosted workforce productivity and deployment, and AI-powered cognitive network operations centres (NOCs) that provide actionable insights and efficiencies in real time.
Femi Osinubi, WMA Consulting and Risk Services Leader, PwC Nigeria, said:
“Telecoms players must accelerate their investment and application of AI technologies if they are to transform their cost base and customer experience.
“At the same time, the digital infrastructure needed to power the AI economy will also create significant opportunity for utility providers to deliver the next version of the internet – the “AI grid” – and serve the growing demand for connectivity.
“The telecoms industry is uniquely positioned to lead the way considering their operation at scale, real estate footprint, and expertise on networks, but they must move quickly to ensure first-mover advantages”.
