Azerbaijan, host of the 2024 UNFCCC COP29 has been given an abysmal rating of “Critically Insufficient” after it fell far below expectations in its climate action interventions.
This was the outcome of an updated country analyses released by the Climate Action Tracker, a joint initiative by tywo scientific research organizations, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Insitute.
According to the report, the very poor rating came about after Azerbaijan weakened its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by removing its 2030 climate target altogether, pledging to increase fossil fuel production and with it, methane.
This is actually quite worrisome and contradictory as Azerbaijan will be hosting COP29, a global gathering where countries are expected to move forward on climate action.
Incidentally, Azerbaijan is not alone as it is among a tiny group of countries that have actually weakened their climate targets in contradiction of the requirement of the Paris Agreement’s Article 4.3 that each Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submission will be more ambitious than its previous one. Azerbaijan’s latest NDC (2023) is less ambitious than its predecessor, as it appears to have dropped its 2030 target altogether.
Overall, Azerbaijan’s target and current policies are far from consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.
Total GHG emissions are projected to continue rising by around 20% to 2030, in stark contrast to the emissions reductions necessary to meet its climate commitments. Energy-related methane emissions are increasing quickly, whereas for 1.5°C alignment they would need to drop by about 66% below 2020 levels by 2030.
With its renewable energy targets quite weak, Azerbaijan’s economy is dependent on fossil fuel production and the government plans to increase fossil gas extraction by more than 30% over the coming decade. Emissions from exported fossil fuels are twice as high as domestic emissions.
Azerbaijan faces increasing droughts and water scarcity, expected to intensify due to extreme weather events. The extraction of oil and fossil gas has likely contributed to land degradation and water contamination. Agriculture and water resources are vital to the country’s economy, significantly influencing GDP and employment.
We project that emissions under Azerbaijan’s current policies could rise to 81–92 MtCO2e by 2030, representing a 13-28% increase from 2020 levels. This trajectory indicates a failure to align with even the country’s modest climate targets, let alone the goals necessary for 1.5°C compatibility.
As European demand for gas grows, Azerbaijan’s dependence on fossil fuels continues to rise. Oil, gas, and petroleum products comprise over 60% of government revenue, with fossil fuels dominating the energy sector. Notably, the transition away from fossil fuels has not been prioritized in Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency agenda, which outlines key objectives for the upcoming summit.
While the government has recently pushed for renewable energy development, the primary goal appears to be reallocating fossil gas for increased exports to Europe rather than genuinely reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
For Azerbaijan to achieve real emissions reductions, renewable energy must replace fossil fuels rather than merely supplement them. With the cost of renewable technologies plummeting, they present a viable option for meeting energy demands, especially in Europe. Azerbaijan should focus on harnessing its vast renewable energy potential, including exploring offshore wind in the Caspian Sea to produce green hydrogen for European markets, where demand is expected to grow significantly in the next decade.
However, the government’s current emphasis remains firmly on the fossil fuel sector, as evidenced by ongoing contracts with foreign oil companies such as British Petroleum (BP) and TotalEnergies. Production is ramping up, particularly with BP’s new oil development in the Caspian Sea, which has recently begun significant output. Additionally, a new gas pipeline is under construction, further entrenching the country’s fossil fuel focus.
Recommendations From The Report
The CAT Azerbaijan country report also came up with several recommendations which could potentially reverse the the country’s weak status and enhance its climate action:
- Revise Policies: Substantially upgrade current policies that permit rising emissions, aiming to reverse this trend and achieve emission reductions by 2030.
- Set Stronger Climate Targets: Establish more ambitious near-term climate targets with significant emissions reductions for both 2030 and 2035.
- Enhance the NDC: Improve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by including an unconditional target and clarifying the assumptions regarding the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector’s role in meeting this target without depending on carbon removals.
- Develop a Long-Term Strategy: Create a comprehensive strategy to transition away from fossil fuels and reduce export dependency, focusing on becoming a renewable energy exporter and replacing fossil fuels in the domestic economy. Instead of investing in ongoing fossil fuel production, Azerbaijan should prioritize renewable energy development. Key mitigation efforts should focus on reducing emissions from oil and gas production through modernized plants, advanced drilling technologies, and minimized flaring.
- Adopt a Net Zero Target: Establish a commitment to achieving net zero emissions.
While Azerbaijan’s climate action status is far below expectations, unfortunately the country is not alone in this rating as several countries, particularly those hosting oil reserves, appear to be in a state of confusion over how to balance their NDC commitments, the global energy transition and the lure of fossilfuel based investments.
This article has been written with heavy reliance on the updated CAT Country analysis.
