- Türkiye’s growing renewable energy sector is being overshadowed by continued coal use and fossil fuel expansion, prompting fresh scrutiny of the COP31 host’s climate ambitions.
Türkiye’s continued reliance on coal, oil and fossil gas is coming under renewed scrutiny ahead of COP31, with the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) warning that the country risks undermining its climate ambitions despite significant progress in renewable energy.
A new CAT analysis of Türkiye’s power sector says the country has the renewable energy potential to substantially reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, but continues to support coal and fossil gas investments while electricity demand rises.
The assessment comes as climate policymakers and experts prepare to focus on Türkiye’s proposed **“35 x 35” goal – achieving 35 percent electrification by 2035** – as part of discussions ahead of the UN climate conference.
According to CAT, however, Türkiye’s electrification rate remained broadly stable at around 21 percent between 2013 and 2023, while official projections indicate it could reach only about 25 percent by 2035. Reaching the 35 percent target would therefore require a significant acceleration in electrification policies, alongside a much faster transition to clean electricity.
CAT argues that increased electrification will only deliver substantial emissions reductions if it is accompanied by a rapid expansion of renewable energy and a clear strategy for reducing fossil fuel use.
The analysis highlights a growing contradiction in Türkiye’s power sector: wind and solar generation are expanding, but fossil fuels – particularly coal – continue to play a major role in electricity production.
Coal remains a major challenge
Türkiye’s coal dependence has become particularly significant within Europe.
CAT notes that Türkiye overtook Germany in 2024 to become Europe’s largest producer of coal-fired electricity. Although no new coal-fired power capacity has been added over the past two years, the government continues to support the sector through subsidies and long-term coal purchase arrangements involving public and private entities.
Coal fields are also being expanded, while policies aimed at maintaining or increasing domestic coal production remain in place.
At the same time, Türkiye is pursuing a broader role as a regional fossil gas hub, including efforts to expand oil and gas exploration and production.
“Türkiye’s climate plans state fossil fuels will remain central to its energy mix until cheaper alternatives emerge. So by its own logic, it should be making the shift away from fossil fuels, given solar power is the country’s lowest-cost source of electricity and substantially undercuts domestic coal,” said **Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics**, a CAT partner organisation.
“While it has made good strides in setting up the right policy framework for renewables, it is still very much focused on fossil fuels as being central to its energy future.”
Renewable energy offers a different pathway
The CAT analysis also acknowledges areas where Türkiye has made progress.
The country has strengthened its policy framework for renewable energy and is expanding wind and solar capacity. It has also developed domestic manufacturing capabilities for key wind-energy components, including towers, blades, generators and gearboxes, with a significant share of the equipment exported to European markets.
Türkiye is also moving rapidly to deploy grid-scale battery storage, potentially strengthening its ability to integrate higher levels of renewable electricity into the power system.
CAT says these developments provide a foundation on which Türkiye could build a faster clean-energy transition.
The organisation is calling for faster deployment of wind and solar, alongside a clearly defined pathway for phasing out fossil fuels.
Among the measures identified are a commitment to phase out coal while providing a just transition for affected workers, abandoning plans to expand Türkiye’s role as an oil and fossil gas hub, and accelerating renewable energy deployment.
“Türkiye has put the right policies in place for renewables, and ahead of COP31 the government could demonstrate leadership as COP31 president by building on its recent successes in increasing its renewable energy capacity and announcing targets and plans to phase out coal and gas ahead of the COP,” the CAT said.
Climate action still rated “Critically insufficient”
In its latest country assessment, the Climate Action Tracker continues to rate Türkiye’s overall climate action as **“Critically insufficient”** – the organisation’s assessment of how the country’s policies and targets compare with pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
CAT says Türkiye is currently projected to meet its 2030 and 2035 climate targets under existing policies, while its emissions are projected to remain on an upward trajectory. Its assessment also finds that Türkiye’s current trajectory is not aligned with a pathway compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
The organisation says Türkiye’s emissions projections have been revised upward compared with its previous assessment.
CAT has also raised concerns about the absence of a clear fossil-fuel phase-out strategy. Its latest assessment notes that coal accounted for about 34 percent of Türkiye’s electricity generation in 2025, compared with 29 percent a decade earlier.
Türkiye has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2053, a target that was subsequently reinforced through its long-term climate strategy and climate legislation. CAT, however, says the country still lacks sufficiently detailed pathways and sectoral milestones showing how that goal will be achieved.
COP31 puts Türkiye’s energy choices under the spotlight
The findings are likely to increase scrutiny of Türkiye’s domestic energy policies as it prepares to host COP31.
CAT says Türkiye could use the presidency of the climate summit to demonstrate greater ambition by building on its renewable energy progress while setting clearer targets for reducing coal and fossil gas dependence.
The organisation’s assessment does not suggest that Türkiye needs to start its energy transition from scratch. Rather, it identifies the country’s expanding renewable-energy industry, grid investments, battery-storage development and domestic clean-technology manufacturing as existing foundations for a faster transition.
The central challenge, according to CAT, is whether Türkiye can match that renewable-energy progress with a corresponding reduction in fossil-fuel dependence.
Türkiye’s experience with electric mobility also points to growing domestic demand for cleaner technologies. Its government-backed electric vehicle manufacturer, Togg, has expanded rapidly in the domestic market, while overall electric vehicle sales have continued to increase.
CAT says Türkiye nevertheless needs to accelerate renewable deployment and strengthen its 2030 and 2035 climate targets, while providing a clearer long-term pathway towards its 2053 net-zero commitment.
As COP31 approaches, the country’s power-sector choices are therefore likely to remain a significant part of the wider debate over whether its climate ambitions can be matched by the policies and investments needed to deliver them.
