Nigeria’s 2026 rainy season will be anything but uniform. Some states should prepare for early rains, others for delayed onset, while several could experience prolonged dry spells lasting up to 21 days, according to the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) unveiled today, Tuesday 10th February in Abuja.
Presenting the SCP, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) described the annual forecast as a critical tool for farmers, disaster managers, aviation operators and policymakers navigating an increasingly unpredictable climate.
According to the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, climate change is no longer a distant environmental issue.
“The impact and effect of climate variability and climate change remain daily realities of modern times,” he said. “The provision of timely and accurate weather information is no longer optional, but a strategic enabler of national development and good governance.”
2026 Climate Forecast: Key Numbers
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21 Days — Possible prolonged dry spells in northern and central states
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28–40 Days — Severe August Break in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, parts of Oyo
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15+ Days — Early-season dry spells (March–May) in Oyo and Ogun
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5 States — Flood risk from above-normal rainfall
Delivering his keynote address, the Minister stressed that extreme weather events, from destructive thunderstorms to droughts and heatwaves, now influence food security, infrastructure resilience, aviation safety and economic planning. According to him, the Seasonal Climate Prediction translates “complex climate signals into clear, actionable guidance” for decision-makers.
In his opening remarks, NiMet’s Director-General and Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Prof. Charles Anosike, said reliable climate information has become indispensable as extreme weather increasingly threatens lives and livelihoods.
“Timely and reliable weather and climate information have become indispensable for building safer and more climate-resilient communities,” he said.
Revealing a notable development, Anosike disclosed that NiMet has established a team of experts to integrate Artificial Intelligence into its forecasting operations. “We are positioning the Agency at the forefront of integrating and operationalising Artificial Intelligence in our forecasting responsibilities,” he said.
However, he acknowledged gaps in local-level dissemination and called for deeper collaboration with state governments. “There is still much ground to be covered,” he noted, urging stronger partnerships to downscale climate information to farmers and communities..
The 2026 forecast, built using global climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), indicates a predominantly neutral ENSO phase but with significant regional variations.
Early onset of rains is expected in states including Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue and parts of the North Central and North West. Borno State is projected to experience late onset.
While most parts of Nigeria are expected to record near-normal annual rainfall, above-normal rainfall is forecast in states such as Borno, Sokoto, Kaduna, Enugu and Akwa Ibom, raising potential flood concerns. Below-normal rainfall is anticipated in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun.
NiMet also warned of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun between March and May, and up to 21 days during the June–July–August period across several northern and central states.
The “August Break” is expected to be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo, potentially lasting between 28 and 40 days.
Additionally, both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be warmer than average in the early months of the year, increasing risks of heat stress and pressure on water and energy resources.
Keyamo cautioned farmers against mistaking early rainfall for the official start of the season and urged stakeholders to rely strictly on NiMet’s published onset dates.
“Any developmental effort that is not informed by credible weather and climate knowledge is vulnerable, costly, and ultimately unsustainable,” he said.
With over 140 years of meteorological history behind it, NiMet says it is strengthening its scientific foundation while embracing new technology. But officials agree that forecasts alone will not protect lives and livelihoods.
As Prof. Anosike put it, climate data must move beyond reports and into real decisions on farms, in ministries, and in boardrooms.
For millions of Nigerians whose livelihoods depend on the weather, the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction is more than a technical document, it is an early warning for a year that demands preparation, coordination and timely action.
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