As Nigeria chases an ambitious 3 million barrels-per-day oil production target by 2030, a deeper and more troubling reality is emerging: even if the goal is achieved, the country’s per capita oil production will still decline, a signal of looming economic pressure if strategic action is not urgently taken.
This warning was sounded by energy communication researcher, Dr. Adeola Yusuf, during a plenary session at the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) 2026, where he called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to insist on clear, phase-by-phase strategic communication plans from oil producers and contractors driving the 2030 target.
Dr. Yusuf, who is also the Team Lead at Platforms Africa, delivered his remarks before an audience that included the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, Ph.D., the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Mrs. Patience Oyekunle, and key industry leaders.
Speaking on “The Impact of Storytelling in Attracting Investment in Nigeria and Africa’s Energy Transformation”, Yusuf argued that projects backed by structured, transparent communication frameworks consistently outperform those without them.
“Research clearly shows that policies and projects that are communicated deliberately, step by step, have significantly higher success rates,” he said.
Yusuf stressed that Nigeria’s oil production challenge is not merely about hitting a headline figure, but about what that figure means for each Nigerian.
At current production levels of approximately 1.6 million barrels per day and a population of about 200 million, Nigeria’s per capita oil production stands at 0.008 barrels per person.
By 2030, even if production rises to 3 million barrels per day, Nigeria’s projected population of 401 million would reduce per capita output to 0.007 barrels per person.
“As huge as the 3 million barrels daily target looks, it is still lower than today’s output when measured per capita,” Yusuf explained. “This is precisely why Nigeria cannot afford to miss the target or approach it casually.”
He warned that failure to meet the target would worsen the scenario, placing further strain on national revenues, development planning, and investor confidence.
Dr. Yusuf urged oil producers and contractors entrusted with the 3 mbopd mandate to deliver with urgency and accountability, while calling on the Minister of State to demand measurable communication milestones alongside production milestones.
“The Honourable Minister has been working tirelessly on this mandate,” Yusuf said. “But contractors and producers must also be compelled to communicate progress, clearly, consistently, and credibly, at every phase.”
“Nigeria cannot fail at this. Not the President. Not the industry. Not the country.”
Drawing from his research on media coverage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) between 2018 and 2021, Yusuf illustrated how communication, or the lack of it, can accelerate or stall policy outcomes.
According to his findings, progress on the PIB was poorly communicated in 2018, even after its passage by the National Assembly and the subsequent withholding of presidential assent. The silence left both Nigerians and global investors uncertain about the bill’s status.
Although the President formally declined assent in July 2018, public confirmation only came a month later, following reports by Platforms Africa and The Cable, and a statement by presidential aide Sen. Ita Enang.
In contrast, when President Muhammadu Buhari signed the PIB into law on August 16, 2021, communication was clearer, more proactive, and more visible—resulting in stronger public understanding and investor confidence.
“The difference between 2018 and 2021 showed the undeniable power of strategic communication in policy formulation and execution,” Yusuf said.
Yusuf concluded that achieving Nigeria’s 3 million barrels-per-day target by 2030 will require more than rigs and reserves—it will demand intentional, transparent, and sustained communication, both domestically and internationally.
“Those responsible for delivering this target must also take responsibility for communicating progress. That is how confidence is built. That is how investment is attracted. And that is how national goals are achieved.” Yusuf concluded.
The plenary session featured Ahmed Galadima Aminu, Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Trust and Development Fund (PTDF), as lead speaker, alongside panelists from NNPC, Chevron, NMDPRA, academia, and international energy institutions. The session was moderated by Dr. Victor Anyaegbudike, Communications Manager at Chevron.
