By Prof. Wumi Iledare
The NNPC Ltd GCEO Bashir Ojulari, Day 3 fire chat at NIES 2026 delivered a rare dose of economic clarity to Nigeria’s refinery debate. His justification for pausing the rehabilitation of the state refineries was stripped to its essentials: the current structure risks destroying value rather than creating it. That is the question that should have guided policy from the beginning.
Refinery rehabilitation is not a symbolic national project; it is a capital decision. Pouring funds into assets whose operating model remains inefficient does not produce recovery — it deepens loss. Distressed industrial assets fail primarily because of structural weaknesses, not funding gaps. The GCEO’s remarks signal recognition that Nigeria’s refinery challenge is systemic, not cosmetic.
The options he outlined — joint venture partnerships, equity restructuring, and operational reconfiguration — are commercially orthodox tools used worldwide to stabilize underperforming public assets. Their common thread is discipline: shared risk, technical accountability, and performance pressure. The choice of mechanism matters less than whether it introduces commercial logic into assets that historically operated outside it.
Equally important is the sequencing. Ownership change, often the loudest public demand, appears secondary to restoring operational credibility. That is pragmatic. Attempting ownership transformation without fixing the business model risks further devaluation and weak investor confidence. In asset restructuring, viability must come before ideology.
What stands out most is the candor. Public energy conversations rarely admit value destruction. By stating it plainly, the GCEO signaled a shift from managing perception to confronting economic reality. The refinery pause should therefore be read not as retreat, but as a diagnostic reset.
The risk now is inertia. Structural reform must not become another indefinite holding pattern. Partnerships must be credible, governance transparent, and performance measurable. If execution matches intent, this moment could mark a turning point in how Nigeria manages strategic energy infrastructure — replacing sentimental asset management with disciplined value creation.
That shift would matter far more than the fate of any single refinery.
Wumi Iledare, SrFUSAEE
Professor of Petroleum Economics
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