At a time when global energy discourse is increasingly shaped by transition targets and decarbonisation pathways, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector is being reminded of a foundational truth: sustainable production growth is impossible without sustained exploration.
That message came through clearly during a media briefing on the sidelines of the 2026 Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) in Abuja, where the President of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE), Mrs. Olajumoke Cecilia Ajayi, addressed journalists on the future of Nigeria’s upstream sector. Listening to her remarks firsthand, it was evident that the sustainability conversation she advanced went beyond emissions rhetoric to the deeper question of long-term energy security, industrial relevance, and economic resilience.
Ajayi warned that Nigeria’s current oil production level of around 1.5 million barrels per day, with longer-term aspirations of 3 million barrels per day, cannot be achieved by relying on aging discoveries alone.
“Nigeria cannot talk about increasing production volumes without first talking about discovery,” she said. “You cannot produce what you have not found.”
In Ajayi’s framing, exploration is not a contradiction to sustainability but a prerequisite for it. Much of Nigeria’s current output, she noted, is derived from discoveries made decades ago. Without consistent reserve replacement, production stability, investor confidence, and long-term planning become fragile.
She argued that renewed exploration—particularly deeper drilling and frontier basin development—offers Nigeria an opportunity to grow reserves while deploying more efficient technologies and better-controlled operating practices.
“We still have deeper prospects that have not been drilled,” Ajayi said. “With today’s technology, pressure regimes can be managed better, allowing us to drill deeper and make new discoveries.”
From a sustainability standpoint, she positioned modern exploration as a tool for smarter resource management rather than unchecked expansion.
Ajayi acknowledged that investor appetite for Nigeria’s upstream sector had declined in previous years, largely due to regulatory uncertainty and weak enforcement. However, she said the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) has begun to reverse that trajectory.
According to her, clearer fiscal terms, stronger governance structures, and more transparent regulators are restoring confidence. The return of regular licensing rounds and renewed interest in long-abandoned assets signal a shift toward accountability and delivery.
“Fields that were left unattended for many years are now attracting investors,” she said. “These are discoveries without production, and once investors take them up, they are required to work the assets.”
She emphasized that the current framework discourages speculative asset holding and places greater weight on competence and execution.
A recurring theme in Ajayi’s briefing was the centrality of technical capacity. Financial strength alone, she stressed, is no longer sufficient in Nigeria’s upstream environment.
“Technical capability is key,” she said. “Without the right expertise, nothing works. Regulators now insist on a clear accountable operator, even within consortium structures.”
Drawing from operational experience, she pointed to examples where indigenous operators, backed by strong geoscience and collaboration, have moved from discovery to first oil within record timelines—challenging long-held assumptions about local capacity.
Indigenous Production and Measurable Outcomes
Ajayi disclosed that her company recently completed a successful well and is preparing to drill a second. In less than one year, the company produced and evacuated over one million barrels of crude oil, averaging about 2,400 barrels per day from a single well.
She described this performance as evidence of what happens when exploration decisions are driven by sound subsurface understanding and operational discipline.
“Everything starts from the subsurface,” she said. “If it is not properly understood, there can be no success.”
Beyond crude oil volumes, Ajayi placed hydrocarbons at the centre of Nigeria’s broader industrial future. She reminded journalists that oil and gas are not just fuels but feedstocks for over 6,000 products, including fertilisers, plastics, tyres, and a wide range of industrial materials.
Expanding domestic processing capacity, she argued, offers a sustainability pathway rooted in value retention rather than export dependence. Large-scale and modular refineries, such as the Dangote Refinery, were cited as opportunities to reduce imports, strengthen supply chains, and create jobs while supporting a gradual and realistic energy transition.
On natural gas, Ajayi highlighted what may be Nigeria’s most underappreciated advantage. Beyond existing proven reserves, she said over 600 trillion cubic feet of gas remain undiscovered, excluding frontier basins where data acquisition is still limited.
Targeted exploration and improved geological data, she noted, could significantly expand Nigeria’s gas base, supporting power generation, industrial growth, and lower-carbon energy use across the economy.
Ajayi concluded with a call to regulators and policymakers to ensure that asset holders are incentivised, and compelled, to invest in new exploration, deeper drilling, and data acquisition, rather than focusing solely on existing production.
“This is what NAPE stands for,” she said. “Exploration must remain at the heart of Nigeria’s upstream strategy.”
Her remarks captured a defining theme from NIES 2026: Nigeria’s pursuit of sustainable energy security, industrial growth, and a just transition is inseparable from what lies beneath the surface—and from the choices made today about how responsibly and strategically those resources are explored.
