Rising Heat: Sustainable Cooling Can Slash 64% of Emissions, $43 Trillion in Savings – UNEP

• Cooling demand set to triple by 2050, driving climate change and overloading power grids
• Sustainable Cooling Pathway would cut 64% off cooling emissions by 2050, protect 3 billion people from rising heat, save up to US$43 trillion in avoided electricity, infrastructure costs
• 185 cities join Beat the Heat initiative alongside 72 Global Cooling Pledge signatories

 

Amid rising heatwaves and surging cooling demand, adopting sustainable cooling – with a strong focus on passive techniques low-energy and hybrid cooling that combines fans and air conditioners that consume little or no power – could cut greenhouse gas emissions, save trillions of dollars and expand life-saving cooling access to those who need it, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.

 

Global Cooling Watch 2025, launched today at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, finds that cooling demand could more than triple by 2050 under business as usual, driven by increases in population and wealth, more extreme heat events and low-income households increasingly gaining access to more polluting and inefficient cooling. This would almost double cooling-related greenhouse gas emissions over 2022 levels – pushing cooling emissions to an estimated 7.2 billion tons of CO2e by 2050 – despite efforts to improve energy efficiency, phase down climate-warming refrigerants and overwhelm power grids during peak load.

 

The report suggests adopting a ‘Sustainable Cooling Pathway’, which could reduce emissions to 64 per cent – 2.6 billion tons of CO2e – below the levels expected in 2050. When combined with rapid decarbonization of the global power sector, residual cooling emissions could fall to 97 per cent below business-as-usual levels.

 

“As deadly heat waves become more regular and extreme, access to cooling must be treated as essential infrastructure alongside water, energy and sanitation,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “But we cannot air condition our way out of the heat crisis, which would drive greenhouse gas emissions higher and raise costs. Passive, energy efficient and nature-based solutions can help meet our growing cooling needs and keep people, food-chains and economies safe from heat as we pursue global climate goals. We have no excuse: it is time we beat the heat”.

 

Sustainable Cooling Pathway

 

Published by the UNEP-led Cool Coalition, the report is the most comprehensive assessment to date of the rapidly growing global demand for cooling and the need for climate-friendly solutions to the issue.

A Sustainable Cooling Pathway can provide access to space cooling or refrigeration, resilient buildings and urban green spaces to all – including low-income and vulnerable groups – such as smallholder farmers, women and the elderly – without exacerbating the climate crisis. This Pathway combines passive cooling strategies, low-energy and hybrid cooling that combines fans and air conditioners, rapid adoption of high-efficiency equipment and accelerated phase-down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment.

 

Nearly two-thirds of the emissions cuts available come from passive and low-energy solutions, reinforcing the urgency of embedding them in national policies and urban planning. Such solutions are also highly affordable and critical for improving access to cooling for three billion more people by 2050. If adopted, the Pathway could save US$17 trillion in cumulative energy costs through to 2050 and avoid up to US$26 trillion in grid investment through reduced electricity demand.

 

Beat the Heat

 

These measures underpin the Mutirão Contra o Calor Extremo / Beat the Heat implementation drive – a collective effort of led by the Brazil COP30 presidency and UNEP Cool Coalition – to localize the Global Cooling Pledge and bridge gaps in policy, finance and delivery of heat resilience and urban cooling. Today, over 185 cities from Rio de Janeiro to Jakarta to Nairobi and 83 partners have joined Beat the Heat -alongside the 72 Global Cooling Pledge signatories.

 

“Beat the Heat is one of those initiatives that shows that mutirão works, meaning that people have to come together and work on what they understand. And that’s what Beat the Heat is all about. It raised an issue in an appealing way that will bring people together to make the effort we need to combat climate change,” said Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, COP30 President-Designate.

 

Progress being made, but uneven

 

Some 72 nations have joined the Global Cooling Pledge to reduce cooling-related emissions by 68 per cent by 2050 following this Sustainable Cooling Pathway. As of mid-2025, 29 countries had established specific greenhouse gas reduction targets for the cooling sector, with a further five developing such targets. In total, 134 countries have incorporated cooling into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Long-term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), energy plans, or other national climate strategies.

 

However, only 54 countries have comprehensive policies across all three priority areas for cooling: passive cooling in building energy codes, minimum energy performance standards, and refrigerant transition. A further 78 countries cover two of these pillars, 40 cover only one, and 20 have yet to begin.

 

The largest gaps are in African and Asia-Pacific countries, where much of the global rise in demand for cooling can be expected.

 

The report issues a series of recommendations to increase action, including moving from emergency response mode to proactive, multi-level governance on extreme heat and cooling, treating heat protection and cooling as a public good, and prioritizing passive and Nature-based Solutions– including urban design – to cut cooling loads, mitigate the urban heat island effect and reduce grid stress.

 

H.E. Grace Fu, Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, Singapore: “As a Global Cooling Pledge signatory, Singapore is taking concrete steps towards Pledge implementation and is proud to support the Beat the Heat initiative by sharing our technical expertise and experience in sustainable cooling and urban heat resilience and providing platforms for countries to exchange knowledge and best practices.

“Singapore will bring together Global Cooling Pledge focal points, policymakers and practitioners from around the world for a review of Pledge progress and a deep-dive on sustainable cooling and heat resilience solutions. Singapore will also share our technical capabilities from our Digital Urban Climate Twin to empower cities globally to better model, predict, and mitigate urban heat. These concrete contributions to Beat the Heat reflects our commitment to advance practical, inclusive solutions for a cooler and more climate-resilient future”

 

Dr. J Jeyaranjan, Executive Vice-Chairman, State Planning Commission, Government of Tamil Nadu: “From taking the pioneering step of declaring heat as a state-specific disaster to developing Heat Action Plans for major cities, Tamil Nadu has established a comprehensive model for heat governance. By joining hands with the global community through the ‘Beat the Heat’ initiative, we have the opportunity to learn from diverse experiences while sharing our own data-driven governance approaches. I believe this co-learning partnership will mutually benefit all participating cities in becoming heat-resilient, inclusive, and climate-ready.”

 

H.E. Evandro Leitão – Mayor of Fortaleza, Brazil: “Fortaleza is putting nature at the heart of climate adaptation and mitigation. We are committed to scaling green corridors and microparks that cool our city and protect the most vulnerable. This is about equity, health, and livability—and through Beat the Heat we want to share and learn with cities in Brazil and worldwide to accelerate this transformation.

 

H.E. Lt. Gen. Bashir Mohamed Jama – Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Somalia: “For Somalian cities like Dolow, Biadoa, Galkaio and Bossaso, sustainable cooling is not a luxury—it is a lifeline. By joining Beat the Heat and working with the UNEP-led Cool Coalition, we aim to protect lives and livelihoods from intensifying heat while advancing climate commitments. Together with other cities, we can turn passive cooling and innovation into resilience for the most vulnerable urban communities.”