The Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) has cautioned that the proposed 15 per cent import tariff on refined petroleum products could significantly raise pump prices across the country, potentially exceeding ₦1,000 per litre for petrol and diesel.
Speaking during a webinar jointly organised with S&P Global Commodity Insights on Thursday, MEMAN’s Executive Secretary, Clement Isong, warned that the measure could have “unimaginable economic consequences” for low-income Nigerians and small businesses if not carefully managed.
Isong noted that with the tariff in place, petrol could sell for around ₦998 per litre in Lagos and its environs, rising to ₦1,028 in upcountry markets, while diesel prices could reach between ₦1,164 and ₦1,194 per litre, depending on marketing margins.
He stressed that such an increase would deepen the cost-of-living crisis and threaten the viability of small and medium-scale enterprises.
“Public policy must be data-driven, evidence-based, and independently verified,” Isong said. “Regulatory safeguards must be in place to prevent excessive price hikes and protect consumers from undue hardship.”
While acknowledging government efforts to promote local refining through the Electricity Act 2024 and the National Petroleum Policy, MEMAN maintained that imposing steep import tariffs could be counterproductive.
The association urged the Federal Government to adopt complementary measures that encourage competition, transparency, and consumer protection within the deregulated downstream sector.
Isong explained that raising the tariff would increase the landing cost of imported fuel, allowing local refiners to recover costs and margins—yet potentially eliminating the import benchmark that currently keeps market prices competitive.
He warned that such distortions could squeeze smaller independent importers out of the market and called for active regulatory oversight by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
MEMAN also recommended a phased or conditional tariff system tied to measurable growth in domestic refining capacity, along with production-linked incentives, temporary tax credits, and low-interest loans for local refiners.
Other suggestions included stronger anti-smuggling enforcement, customs reforms, and improved exchange rate management to make locally refined products more competitive.
The association further called for the fast-tracking of NNPC Heritage and modular refineries, describing direct support to domestic producers as a “superior economic policy to tariffs.”
At the same webinar, S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts, Dumdisi Awanen and Tanya Stepanova, presented a report titled “Navigating Transformation: Lessons from Global Markets for Nigeria’s Energy Future.”
Their analysis highlighted Nigeria’s position as a pioneer in fuel market liberalization in Africa but emphasized the need for strong regulatory oversight to ensure fair competition and prevent monopolies.
Using case studies from Ghana, Zambia, Morocco, and South Africa, the report showed that transparent regulation and open-access systems promote price stability, while excessive protectionist measures can distort markets.
Both MEMAN and S&P Global agreed that Nigeria’s downstream oil sector is undergoing a major transformation—driven by new refineries, deregulated pricing, and declining imports—but cautioned that policy missteps such as premature tariffs or weak regulation could undermine these gains.
“Nigeria’s success will depend on how well it balances refinery support, consumer welfare, and market competition,” the report concluded.
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